GA 2021 Senate Runoff Early & Absentee Vote Report




2021 Early & Absentee Votes Cast - By Modeled Party

Ballots Returned Over Time - Yearly Comparison

ℹ️ Demographic & Geo Type filter choices do not apply to this chart.



TargetEarly was developed by TargetSmart to visualize patterns in early votes cast as reported by state election officials. Follow these tips to filter the charts and tables below to your specifications:

  • Use the View Type dropdown to toggle between national and statewide results. If viewing statewide, use the State dropdown to select your state.

  • In State mode, if you wish to filter even further, use the Geo Type dropdown to toggle between Congressional District and County Name, then use the corresponding dropdown to select a single district or county. This will filter the bar chart and table to the district or county level but will not affect the line charts below (these remain static at the state level).

  • Use the Demographic dropdown to select one of eight filters (described in the About This Data section) for the bar chart and table.

  • Use the Demographic Value and Demographic 2 dropdowns to take a deeper look at a single demographic subgroup. For example, if “Age” is selected in the Demographic dropdown, you can select “65+” in Demographic Value and then select “Gender” in the popup Demographic 2 dropdown to see the gender breakdown of voters ages 65 and over within the geography you have selected.

  • Use the Share Custom URL button to share your findings on social media or to copy a URL specific to your findings.

To make the 2021 early vote data easier to understand, we've broken down individual vote history by demographics and model score distributions to illustrate the shape of the changing electorate since 2016. Data shown here reflects TargetSmart’s analysis of early vote data that has been released by individual state election officials. This data is subject to change daily as we receive continual file updates nationwide. Please see the bullets below for more information on available selections.

  • Gender: Where self-reported gender is not available, we use a TargetSmart model to predict individual gender identity.

  • Gender + Marital Status: This field combines Gender and Marital Status demographics. When not self-reported, both fields are predicted using TargetSmart internal modeling.

  • Race: In states where self-reported race data is not provided, we use TargetSmart modeled race to predict subtotals by race. The "Uncoded" category represents voters for whom the TargetSmart race model is not confident enough to make a prediction.

  • Race with Education: This field divides Caucasian voters into those with and without a college degree, as research has shown that these groups exhibit quite different voting patterns. [1]

  • Urbanicity: A TargetSmart-specific measure that describes how densely developed an area is based on population, employees, businesses, traffic counts and other factors. The urbanicity measure is broken down into 6 classifications: Rural 1, Rural 2, Suburban 3, Suburban 4, Urban 5, and Urban 6. For this site, they have been summarized further to Rural, Suburban, and Urban.

  • Registered Party: Party registration is not available in every state. In states where it is not available, all voters will be labeled as 'Unaffiliated'.

  • Modeled Party: This field represents a partisanship prediction derived from the TargetSmart partisan score. Values break down as follows:

    • Democrat - Voters with TargetSmart partisan scores greater than 65.
    • Unaffiliated - Voters with TargetSmart partisan scores greater than or equal to 35 and less than or equal to 65.
    • Republican - Voters with TargetSmart partisan scores less than 35.

    Caution should be used when interpreting changes in these numbers from cycle to cycle, as the shape of year-specific partisan score distributions can shift depending on available model training data.

  • Voter Score: This field represents quintiles of voting frequency in general and primary elections, calculated at the county level, going back to 2000 for registrants that have voted in at least one of these elections. Values break down as follows:

    • Super Voter - Indicates the voter is in the top quintile of voting frequency for general and primary elections within the source voter file state.
    • Frequent Voter - Indicates the voter is in the second or third quintile of voting frequency for general and primary elections within the source voter file state.
    • Infrequent Voter - Indicates the voter is in the bottom two quintiles of voting frequency for general and primary elections within the source voter file state.
    • First Time Voter - Indicates the registered voter has no vote history reported in any general or primary election currently available within the source voter file state.

  • View Type: Allows the user to toggle between national and state-specific views. Selecting the National option aggregates only the states available in the State dropdown menu. This selection can give a broad overview of national patterns, but because of its unbalanced distribution should be more carefully interpreted than any single state.

  • Voted in 2016: Indicates whether or not the voter voted in the 2016 presidential election. In 2016, 100% of voters in this demographic are marked as "Voted".

TargetSmart makes no warranty, expressed or implied, as to the results obtained from the use of the information on the TargetEarly website.
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